Could Tadej Pogačar Win the Final Stage Time Trial? Sure, Why Not? (2024)

For the first time in the event’s 111-year history, the Tour de France doesn’t end in Paris–it ends in Nice on the Côte d'Azur. And for the first time since 1989, the race concludes with an individual time trial–in this case a 33.7km ride from Monaco to the symbolic capital of the French Riviera that will serve as the final challenge for the remaining competitors in the 2024 Tour de France.

  • Date: Sunday, July 21
  • Distance: 33.7km
  • Start location: Monaco
  • Finish location: Nice

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The stage begins in Monaco, which hosts the Tour de France for the eighth time in its history. The race last visited the small principality in 2009, when it hosted the Tour’s Grand Depart. Switzerland’s Fabian Cancellara won that stage 15 years ago, crushing the 15.5km individual time trial to take the Tour’s first yellow jersey. But at 33.7km, this year’s time trial is more than double the length that it was in 2009.

After rolling down the start ramp, the riders will take a quick loop around the port and then through Monte-Carlo before starting the day’s primary challenge: the Category 2 climb to La Turbie. Another climb that will be familiar to riders who have competed in past editions of March’s Paris-Nice stage race, La Turbie is a long climb (8.1km) to include in a time trial, and it will be interesting to see the equipment choices made by riders hoping to win the stage or defend high placings on the Tour’s General Classification. Some might choose to ride their regular road bikes for the sake of the climb–but also for the technical descent, which should also play a role in determining the outcome of the stage.

Could Tadej Pogačar Win the Final Stage Time Trial? Sure, Why Not? (1)

The first time check comes at the top of La Turbie, about 11km into the stage. From here the riders will have a few kilometers to catch their breath and regroup before the road kicks up again–this time on a ramp with a steep 10.4 percent gradient–to the top of the Col d'Èze.

While not a categorized climb–mainly because they’re tackling after coming off La Turbie–the Col d'Èze is an annual fixture in Paris-Nice, usually on the race’s final stage. It’s a fitting inclusion on a Tour de France stage like this one, and even though it’s just a couple of kilometers long, it’s going to hurt.

The riders pass through the day’s second time check at the top of the col, and then–after a couple of flat kilometers–they begin the long, winding descent back down to the Côte d'Azur. This technical (sometimes dangerous) descent is another reason why riders might choose to ride their road bikes on Stage 21, essentially sacrificing a bit of aerodynamic drag for the sake of better handling. The day’s third time check comes at the bottom of the descent, about 5km from the finish line.

The riders finally return to the coast a little before 4km to go, then take a long lap of the Promenade des Anglais before the stage finish in Nice’s Place Masséna. These final five kilometers are the flattest of the entire stage. Expect the best times to come from riders who were able to save some power for the finale.

Don’t be surprised if the weather impacts the outcome: there’s a chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon, which would turn the roads in the hills above the city into sheets of ice. This could provide an advantage to anyone who completes the stage on drier roads, maybe giving us a surprise winner.

Riders to Watch

Could Tadej Pogačar Win the Final Stage Time Trial? Sure, Why Not? (2)

In designing this final stage, the Tour’s organizers had hoped that it might in some way decide the Tour’s final outcome. Unfortunately, they’re unlikely to get their wish as everything–aside from the winner of the stage–has already been decided.

If the roads remain dry, expect the Tour’s top-3 riders to battle for the stage victory, with Slovenia’s Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates), Denmark’s Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), and Belgium’s Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quick Step) the top favorites to win Stage 21.

On a flatter course, Evenepoel–the current world time trial champion–would be the top favorite. But the Category 2 climb to La Turbie followed by the quick, steep ramp to the summit of the Col d'Èze could shift things in Pogačar’s favor. And Pogačar will certainly be motivated: he’s already wrapped-up the overall victory in the 2024 Tour de France, but he could take an incredible sixth stage win with a victory Sunday.

And don’t rule out Vingegaard, who rebounded after a rough day on Friday to finish second on Saturday’s Stage 20. The Dane crushed Pogačar in a hilly time trial in the third week of last year’s Tour and could surprise us with another win on Sunday. He hasn’t had the Tour he wanted after missing several weeks of training following a terrible crash in early April, but he’s still proven himself to be the Tour’s second-best rider, and would love to end the race by sending a message to his rivals heading into 2025.

Let’s just hope the roads stay dry so that we can enjoy one final battle between the three best riders in the 2024 Tour de France.

How to Watch Stage 21 of the Tour de France

You can stream Stage 21 of the 2024 Tour de France on NBC’s Peaco*ck ($5.99/month or $59.99/year). If you’re looking for ad-free coverage, you’ll need a subscription to Peaco*ck Premium Plus, which runs $11.99 per month or $119.99 for the year.

It’s the final stage of the Tour which means Stage 21 will be starting much later than most. The final wave of riders will set-off at 2-minute intervals, with Evenepoel starting at 12:41 p.m. EDT, Vingegaard starting at 12:43 p.m. EDT, and Pogačar starting at 12:45 p.m. EDT. It should take them about 45 minutes to complete the challenging course, with the stage expected to end around 1:30 p.m. EDT. Make sure you stick around to watch the Tour’s final podium ceremony–and the first one taking place in Nice.

How to Watch Stage 21 of the Tour de France in Canada

If you live in Canada, you can catch all the action on FloBikes. An annual subscription will cost you $29.99/month or $150/year.

How to Watch Stage 21 of the Tour de France in the U.K.

UK viewers can watch the Tour de France on ITV4, Eurosport, and Discovery+.

A standard Discovery+ subscription, featuring Eurosport’s cycling coverage, costs £6.99 monthly or £59.99 annually. The premium subscription, which includes all this plus TNT Sports, is available for an extra £29.99 per month.

Could Tadej Pogačar Win the Final Stage Time Trial? Sure, Why Not? (3)

Whit Yost

Contributing Writer

Since getting hooked on pro cycling while watching Lance Armstrong win the 1993 U.S. Pro Championship in Philadelphia, longtime Bicycling contributor Whit Yost has raced on Belgian cobbles, helped build a European pro team, and piloted that team from Malaysia to Mont Ventoux as an assistant director sportif. These days, he lives with his wife and son in Pennsylvania, spending his days serving as an assistant middle school principal and his nights playing Dungeons & Dragons.

Could Tadej Pogačar Win the Final Stage Time Trial? Sure, Why Not? (2024)

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